National cotton stocks have reportedly dropped below 10,000 bales ahead of the new ginning season, triggering concerns of a supply crisis where some textile mills may partially suspend operations due to raw material shortages.
Industry officials said it may be the first time in the country’s history that cotton inventories have fallen to such critically low levels before the arrival of the new crop. The shortage has intensified pressure on textile manufacturers already struggling with high production costs and disrupted import channels.
The situation worsened after the temporary closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border blocked the entry of nearly 500,000 cotton bales from Afghanistan. At the same time, the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupted regional trade routes and affected cotton imports, further tightening supplies for domestic mills.
As supply conditions deteriorated, cotton prices surged sharply over the past week. Market rates climbed to around Rs. 22,000 per maund, while deferred payment deals were reportedly being made at up to Rs. 23,500 per maund.
The country’s new cotton ginning season is expected to begin immediately after Eid ul Azha, while large scale arrivals of the new crop are likely to start in the third week of June. Industry participants expect the incoming crop to provide temporary relief to spinning and textile mills through improved market availability.
Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsan ul Haq has urged the government to introduce emergency measures aimed at boosting domestic cotton production and reducing dependence on imports.
He called for a complete ban on sugarcane cultivation in designated cotton growing zones, arguing that such measures could help Pakistan save billions of dollars in cotton and edible oil imports.
He also pointed to India’s recent policy response after New Delhi faced increased cotton imports due to strong yarn exports to China. According to him, India has allocated more than Rs. 56 billion for a cotton production enhancement program covering the period from 2026-27 to 2030-31, focusing on climate-resilient and high-yield seed varieties along with upgrades to more than 2,000 ginning and processing factories.
Meanwhile, cotton sowing is underway in most growing regions of Pakistan, but farmers are facing rising input costs. DAP fertilizer prices have climbed to around Rs. 16,000 per bag, while urea prices have reached nearly Rs. 4,500 per bag. Industry experts warned that reduced fertilizer usage due to higher costs could lower cotton yields and force Pakistan to increase imports again in the coming months.
