Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila has intensified into a category 5 system, as conflicting forecast models keep Queensland residents on their toes.
The monster storm is still lingering over the Solomon Sea, with wind gusts near its centre of up to 280km/h or more causing heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas.
A warning is in place for the southwest of Ranonnga Island in the Western Province of the Solomon Islands, with locals also warned of possible landslides and flooding.
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More than 1,000km away in Australia, the slow-moving giant is making for an anxious wait for both locals and forecasters alike, as popular climate models used by meteorologists spit out conflicting data.
A popular American forecast model, JTWC, shows the system crossing the coast in a similar far north Cape York Peninsula location as cyclone Narelle last month.
However, a European forecast model has Maila passing much closer to Cairns and at a much higher strength.
One weather model shows an intense Cyclone Maila heading towards Cairns. Credit: Windy.com
What is certain is the cyclone is slowly on the move, with forecasts showing it will turn towards the Far North Queensland coast over the weekend with a possible coastal crossing early next week.
“It has been very slow moving over the last 24 hours,” BOM senior meteorologist Harry Clark said.
“Essentially it’s been sitting over the same spot, or not too far from where it has been, for a while now, but did have a bit of a burst of intensification yesterday and overnight, which got us to category 5.”
An American forecast model shows Maila making a track across the Queensland coast similar to Cyclone Narelle. Credit: JTWC
Clark said there are some signs the system may slowly begin to weaken as it makes its way west.
“When we look at the next 24 hours, and indeed the next few days, what we’re expecting to start seeing from later today is that system slowly shifting southwestward and dropping down in intensity very slowly,” he said.
Maila is likely to be a category 4 system by Thursday, before being downgraded again on Friday to a category 3, however, it is still likely to pack a punch as it sideswipes Papua New Guinea before making its way to the Queensland coastline.
“People are advised to stay away from the edge of the sea. Seek higher ground until the cyclone threat passes,” the PNG national weather service has warned.
A cyclone warning is current for Milne Bay Province, and the coastal and island communities of Woodlark, Sudet, Misima, Rossel Islands and Bougainville.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila is expected to bring intense weather to parts of PNG. Credit: AAP
“In terms of where (Maila will arrive in Australia), there still remains a very high degree of uncertainty,” Clark said.
“Model scenarios have it all the way up from Lockhart River down to, in some cases, Cairns.
“So at this stage, we can’t be overly specific about where, but Far North Queensland and particularly the areas north around Cairns are looking as the most likely areas.
“But certainly it’s a bit of a ‘watch this space’ as we start seeing the system come a little bit closer and get a bit more confidence of where it may go.”
Why is Cyclone Maila so slow?
Clark said Maila’s steering influences are weak, with the system expected to remain slow-moving in the Solomon Sea and well away from the Queensland coast during the next few days.
“Tropical cyclones move based on the winds that steer them, and those winds are generally in the mid-levels of the atmosphere,” he said.
“If you have a big easterly broad flow, your system will move to the west.
“In this case, the winds in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are quite weak and the steering influences are not really great at all.
“So Maila has just been sort of sitting there, not really feeling the effects of anything.
“But as we go into the next few days, we’re going to start seeing increased easterly winds pushing it into the southwest, thanks to what we call an upper ridge.”
Clark said once the winds start moving the cyclone west, forecasters will being to see the direction Maila will take.
“We are relatively confident in that movement to the southwest, once it gets going, that it will likely continue,” he said.
“Given it’s so far away, any slight change in the angle of that southward movement has a fairly large implication for the area it moves on to on the Queensland coast eventually.”
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