Synopsis: Brokerage turns bullish on Meesho, citing strong growth outlook, improving profitability levers, and significant upside potential driven by scale and monetization.
This article outlines the bullish stance of Axis Capital on Meesho, covering its strong growth outlook, profitability drivers such as ads and operating leverage, competitive positioning in value commerce, and the potential upside supported by scale and monetization trends.
With a market capitalization of Rs 63,454 crore, Meesho Ltd’s shares closed at Rs 140.53, down by 3.53 percent from its previous day’s close price. The share of this company has given a negative return of 15 percent since its listing in December 2025
Brokerage’s Views
Axis Capital has initiated a Buy rating with a target price of Rs 195, implying 38.9 percent upside, supported by strong GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) growth, scale advantages, and improving visibility on ad-driven monetization.
Strong Growth Visibility Despite Saturation Concerns: Growth visibility remains robust, with brokerage Axis Capital suggesting that fears of market saturation appear overstated. The report highlights that Meesho continues to have significant headroom for expansion, projecting a potential scale-up to nearly 440 million active users by FY30.
Strong Growth Outlook Ahead: Axis Capital remains optimistic on Meesho, projecting marketplace value and revenue to grow at around 29 percent and 25 percent annually between FY26 and FY30, with adjusted EBITDA margins likely reaching near 3 percent by FY30.
Structural Drivers to Support Expansion: The growth outlook is supported by rising internet penetration, deeper adoption across smaller cities, and continued expansion of the seller base. Additionally, its asset-light model and negative working capital cycle are expected to aid consistent free cash flow generation.
Ads and Operating Leverage to Drive Profitability: Axis Capital highlights that Meesho is increasingly focusing on profitability, with strong demand-side traction feeding into its ad-monetization flywheel. Advertisements are expected to emerge as a key margin driver, alongside operating leverage as scale improves over time.
Scale Advantage Strengthens Market Position: The brokerage notes that Meesho’s strong positioning in value commerce gives it a clear edge, with limited direct competition in its core segment. Its growing scale continues to reinforce leadership, particularly in catering to price-sensitive consumers across high-frequency purchase categories.
Limited Competitive Intensity in Value Commerce: While players like Amazon (Bazaar) and Flipkart (Shopsy) are present, replicating Meesho’s model remains challenging. With over 25 percent share in industry shipments, its dominance in low-AOV, high-frequency transactions underscores a strong and defensible business model.
About the Company
Meesho Ltd is an app-based marketplace that is operated under the brand of Meesho that connects sellers and end consumers. Its offerings span categories including fashion, accessories, electronics, home and kitchen items, health, and fitness equipment, and office supplies.
Financial highlights: The revenue (Sales) grew by 31 percent to Rs 3,518 crore in Q3 FY26 from Rs 2,679 crore in Q3 FY25. EBIDT declined to a loss of Rs 539 crore in Q3 FY26 from a loss of Rs 131 crore in Q3 FY25. Accompanied by a net loss increase to Rs 491 crore in Q3 FY26 from a loss of Rs 37.4 crore in Q3 FY25, resulting in an EPS improvement of to Rs -1.09 per share up from Rs -4.44.
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