Local News
A potential ballot question would lower the rate from 5% to 4%, with savings varying widely by income and a major hit to state revenue.
Massachusetts State House view from the bottom of Beacon Hill on Storrow Drive in Boston. (David L Ryan/Globe Staff)
March 19, 2026 | 4:42 PM
2 minutes to read
Massachusetts voters could be asked to weigh in this November on a ballot question to lower the state’s income tax rate from 5% to 4%, a proposal backed by a conservative-leaning policy group that’s gaining traction.
If approved, the change could mean meaningful savings for residents. Experts estimate the median household would pay about $1,250 less in taxes each year, a new analysis found.
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A new analysis from Tufts University’s Center for State Policy Analysis finds that the tax cut would affect households across the income spectrum in similar ways proportionally — most people would keep about 1% more of their income.
Evan Horowitz, the author of the analysis and executive director for the center did not respond to Boston.com’s request for comment in time for publication.
But the benefits look very different. Higher-income households would see much larger tax cuts than lower- and middle-income families.
Here’s how the estimated annual savings break down:
- Under $25,000 yearly income: $69
- $25,000 to $75,000: $474
- $75,000 to $200,000: $1,267
- $200,000 to $500,000: $3,155
- $500,000 to $1 million: $7,341
- Over $1 million: $37,421
A major hit to state revenue
Income tax is Massachusetts’ largest revenue source for public programs, according to the analysis. While the tax cut would boost take-home pay, it would also significantly reduce state revenue.
Analysts estimate income tax collections would drop by nearly 20%, leading to an overall decline of about 10% in total state tax revenue — roughly $5.1 billion per year.
That loss would outweigh the additional money raised by the state’s so-called “millionaires tax,” raising concerns about how Massachusetts would balance its budget. Experts and top state officials warn the reduction could put pressure on funding for core services like education, transportation, and health programs.
Gov. Maura Healey has opposed to the ballot question, arguing such a cut would be “a terrible thing to do” for the state’s financial health.
“It’s counterproductive to economic success and Massachusetts competitiveness,” Healey said at a Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce event last week, the Boston Globe reported.
The proposal wouldn’t take effect immediately. Instead, the tax cut would be phased in over three years starting January 1, 2027.
Even so, the delayed rollout creates “a serious planning problem” for state lawmakers, the analysis said, who must begin crafting budgets now without knowing whether a major drop in revenue is coming.
Despite the size of the tax cut in total dollars, the impact on individual households is relatively modest compared to overall income, Tufts found, and “is unlikely to have a significant impact on private spending or the overall state economy.”
Who’s behind the campaign — and what voters think
The ballot question was put forward by James Stergios of the Pioneer Institute, a right-leaning think tank based in Boston.
A 2025 Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll found the idea has strong support, with about 67% of respondents saying they would vote in favor of reducing the state’s income tax rate.
Ultimately, the proposal presents voters with a tradeoff: smaller tax bills for households versus less revenue for state government.
Supporters argue the cut would give residents more control over their money. Critics warn it could force difficult budget decisions in the years ahead.
What do you think? Would you vote in favor or against the possible ballot question to reduce the state’s income tax?
Tell us by filling out the form or e-mailing us at [email protected], and your response may appear in a future Boston.com article.
Should Mass. reduce its income tax?
Annie Jonas is a Community writer at Boston.com. She was previously a local editor at Patch and a freelancer at the Financial Times.
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