Australian Survivor’s troubling start this week has become a full blown alarm bell for 10, with the third episode slipping to a level few would have predicted for one of the network’s most expensive franchises.
But that was before the network made the extraordinary decision to part ways with longtime host Jonathan LaPaglia midway through last year after 11 successful seasons, during which he had become widely synonymous with the show itself.
After an extremely soft premiere week following I’m A Celebrity wrapping up on Sunday, the trajectory is now pointing firmly in the wrong direction, raising serious questions about how deep the slide could go and what it may mean for the franchise’s future.
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Episode three of the new season drew just 365,000 metro overnight viewers on Wednesday, down again from 412,000 the night before, with only 464,000 tuning in for Monday’s widely promoted launch episode — all three figures down on the equivalent episodes last year.
From Golden God to host, Genat now carries the weight of one of 10’s biggest and most expensive franchises (image – 10 / Nigel Wright)
Worryingly low numbers for what has long been a schedule staple since 10 revived the format in 2016 and one of the most expensive productions in the network’s library.
Season 12, themed Redemption, marks the first without LaPaglia, after weeks of speculation last year that he would be replaced by former player and two time winner David Genat — a move the network eventually confirmed.
And the tribe appears to have well and truly spoken. Following a huge backlash when LaPaglia’s exit was confirmed, many fans vowed to boycott the new series and now appear to be voting with their remotes.
A network insider echoed these sentiments when speaking with TV Blackbox, saying:
“Fans warned they’d vote with their remotes, and it seems they have.”
While formats often outlast presenters — 10 successfully re cast MasterChef after the exit of Gary, George and Matt — this version of Survivor bucks that trend, with LaPaglia widely regarded as the face, voice and driving force of the local series.
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Few reality franchises are as closely tied to a single presenter, making the transition especially risky.
In an attempt to reassure the industry and advertisers, Network 10 has been quick to emphasise digital gains, declaring the season its most streamed ever with BVOD audiences “up 30 percent year on year”.
However, that largely reflects a broader shift across television as cord cutters continue to migrate to connected devices, meaning where viewers watch matters less when overall audiences are declining — and sharply.
The network insider, who cannot be named for obvious reasons, went on to say the early trajectory is already raising alarm bells inside the building.
“Three days in, and Australian Survivor is already stranded on the wrong island since dumping Jonathan LaPaglia.”
The soft start comes despite an aggressive promotional blitz, with Genat travelling to each of the capital cities to support the launch. Much of that publicity, however, centred on the hosting change rather than the season itself.
It also follows a crowded Survivor calendar, with two seasons airing last year — including the second instalment first reported by TV Blackbox — and another returnee heavy cast this time around under a theme widely criticised by fans as lacking a clear hook.
Survivor 50 launches with Probst still at the helm, proof some torches are never meant to be snuffed (image – Robert Voets/CBS)
External pressures have not helped. The timeslot is currently dominated by a blockbuster MAFS season, while franchise fatigue may also be a factor after two recent cycles and the recent debut of the highly anticipated U.S. Survivor 50.
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Behind the scenes, the network has already been exploring ways to manage costs for potential future seasons, with TV Blackbox previously reporting discussions around filming multiple seasons consecutively and a potential move from Fiji to Malaysia.
Genat faced the near impossible task of stepping into the role for what is widely regarded as the strongest international version of the format outside the original.
While he remains one of Australia’s most successful players, hosting requires a different skill set — and the early numbers suggest viewers may not yet be convinced.
Time will tell whether the series stabilises once viewing patterns settle, but for now 10 faces the uncomfortable reality of a flagship franchise suddenly looking very vulnerable.
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