Weather
How long will the frigid cold last? What about the chances of snow?
Stan Grossfeld / The Boston Globe
If you take a look at the three coldest months of the year, December through February, we are in the final stretch of that particular measure of the season, known as meteorological winter. Of course, March can be cold and stormy, and even April can be less favorable for outdoor activities. But for the sake of our collective mood about winter, let’s look ahead to what we might expect in the coming weeks and into March.
Temperatures were significantly below normal in December as well as in January. Yet what’s interesting is that if this New England winter had occurred at the turn of the 20th century, it would have just been a typical cold, first two-thirds of winter. The reason why it seems so cold to all of us this year is that our winters have warmed dramatically over the past 100 years, and now a winter that would have been fairly ho-hum becomes “bitter cold.”
Winter 2017-2018 was the last time it was really this cold.
There’s no doubt the first week of February is going to go down as much colder than average, especially with a blast of Arctic cold coming this weekend. New Englanders will wake up Sunday to subzero temperatures. Then temperatures are expected to plunge 20 to 30 degrees below normal heading into the second week.
How long will the frigid cold last?
But there are some signs that this next blast of Arctic air could be the last for a little while. The European forecast model gives us something meteorologists call the “weeklies,” a look-ahead at the big-picture variables, like temperature and precipitation. The caveat here is that this is a longer long-range forecast.
What the weeklies show is a backing off of the cold for that third week of February. You may even have a bit of spring fever after this upcoming weekend. However mild it gets, it’s likely to return to a colder-than-average pattern at least into the beginning of March.
Just remember, average temperatures are continuing to rise. The final week of February sees an average high of 40 degrees, warming to nearly 50 by the end of March. So, even if we’re 10 degrees below average at the end of March, it’s still going to be significantly milder.
What does this all mean for snow chances?
Whether or not there’s snow accompanying the cold remains to be seen. Coming off the snowiest winter month since January 2022, Boston typically sees about 13 inches of snow in February. Last year, the city ended up with just over 14 inches.
Following that very snowy January 2022, the following February saw 15.3 inches from a few minor snowstorms. Boston may end up seeing a similar scenario unfold this month. But with colder temperatures now than then, the opportunity for more snow is certainly possible.
As a side note, the most snow to fall during February was during Snowmaggedon in 2015, with 64.8 inches of snow falling in Boston across multiple major snowstorms.
As we know, a storm can form quite close to New England, but we can still be on the dry side.
Although we actually have above-average snowfall to date, right now it’s been drier than average. It seems almost ridiculous to even point this out, but we remain in drier or even drought conditions across not only much of New England but much of the country.
One of the reasons for the dryness is the persistent Arctic air, and the Arctic is basically a cold desert. As long as we have a northwest early flow dominating the pattern, the likelihood of above-average precipitation remains low. Of course, you can still have a lot of snow with lower-than-average moisture. Just look at January, with 15 inches of more snowfall than normal, yet over an inch less moisture than we would typically expect. That’s why the snow was so light and fluffy.
Significant gains in daylight
A look ahead to the next few weeks would be incomplete without mentioning our ever-expanding daylight. We gain over an hour of daylight in February and even more in March.
The angle of the sun continues to get higher each day, and the sun, which is now at mid-November strength, will be roughly comparable to October strength by mid-February.
Another indication that spring’s around the corner: Around Valentine’s Day, you’re likely to start hearing birds singing in the morning, as long as it’s not super cold — a sign that no matter what the weather brings, Mother Nature is moving toward spring.
Globe meteorologist Ken Mahan contributed to this report.
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