Pakistan’s urea sales are expected to fall to their lowest level in more than six years in January 2026, as advance buying in December, easing discounts and tapering seasonal demand led to a sharp slowdown in offtake, according to sector research by Topline Securities.
The research note shows that fertilizer sales declined sharply on both a month on month (MoM) and year on year (YoY) basis, while inventories rose as production continued at steady levels despite weaker demand.
Pakistan’s urea sales for Jan 2026 is expected to clock in at 218k tons (75-month low), down by 84 percent MoM and 51 percent YoY. The sharp slowdown follows advance purchases in December 2025, driven by higher manufacturer discounts, which pushed December 2025 sales to an all-time high of 1.36mn tons.
Discounts offered by select manufacturers decreased in January 2026, with EFERT offering Rs. 100-150/bag compared to Rs. 400/bag in December 2025, while FFC did not offer any discounts in Jan-26 after providing Rs. 150-200/bag in December 2025, as per our channel checks.
The closing inventory of urea is expected to be around 0.63 million tons in January 2026, up from 0.32 million tons in December 2025. The inventory rise reflects normalization after an exceptionally strong December 2025, as discounts were rolled back, seasonal Rabi demand tapered, and production continued at steady levels, leading to inventory build-up.
Company wise, Fatima Group (FATIMA) holds the highest inventory of 220k tons followed by Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) of 264k tons, and Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) of 90k tons.
Among the companies, EFERT is anticipated to record a massive decrease of 96 percent MoM and 77 percent YoY in urea sales to 24k tons in January 2026. While FFC is expected to record urea sales of 175k tons, down 54 percent MoM and 10 percent YoY followed by FATIMA of 7k tons, down 97 percent MoM and 93 percent YoY in January 2026.
Total DAP sales during January 2026 is likely to be at ~34k tons, down 58 percent MoM and 45 percent YoY.
Company wise data suggests, FFC and EFERT are estimated to record DAP sales of 20k tons and 11k tons, respectively in Jan 2026. Closing inventory of DAP is likely to be around 275k tons in Jan 2026.
