The 2025 NFL regular season is officially in the books. Before we start looking forward to the postseason, though, this is the last Monday we’ll spend summating what we saw in the regular season.
It’s time to hand out my awards for 2025. These aren’t predictions for who will win the hardware when these awards are announced next month. Instead, these are my picks for who I believe deserves them based on what I’ve seen.
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This is the third of the three awards columns I put together each season (we also handed out awards after Week 4 and after Week 9). I also took an in-depth look at the MVP race a few weeks ago and discussed many of the top players in my All-Pro team last week. Obviously, a lot can change over time. For instance, my Coach of the Year picks earlier in the season were Dan Campbell and Shane Steichen, neither of whom will be on the ballot or in the postseason this January.
We’ll hit Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, the new Protector of the Year honor and Offensive and Defensive Rookie and Player of the Year. And of course, I’ll finish up with my MVP pick.
Jump to an award:
DROY | OROY | Protector of the Year
Comeback POY | Coach of the Year
DPOY | OPOY | MVP
Defensive Rookie of the Year
My top pick after Week 4: Carson Schwesinger
My top pick after Week 9: Abdul Carter
It wasn’t really a banner season for the defensive class of 2025. First-round picks such as Jaguars receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, Cardinals defensive tackle Walter Nolen III and 49ers defensive lineman Mykel Williams missed significant time with injuries to either begin or end the season. Players who got off to promising starts, such as Cardinals corner Will Johnson and Eagles linebacker Jihaad Campbell, weren’t able to keep that level of play up over the entire season.
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Some of the most promising rookies play in roles that aren’t going to draw much attention. Defensive tackles such as the Bills’ Deone Walker and Steelers’ Derrick Harmon; slot corners such as the 49ers’ Upton Stout and Bucs’ Jacob Parrish; and safeties such as the Seahawks’ Nick Emmanwori and Falcons’ Xavier Watts are going to fly underneath the radar relative to their impact, although Watts led all rookies with five picks. There are a lot of players who will be on NFL rosters for years to come from this defensive class, but through one season, there hasn’t been much star power. Some of the players below might be the closest things to exceptions.
The Falcons invested heavily in young defenders last April, and between Pearce, Watts and Jalon Walker, they landed some useful players (albeit at a significant cost). Pearce led all rookies with 10.5 sacks, and while he had only a half-sack to his name through Week 8, he ran off a streak of six straight games with at least one sack. The only other players in league history with a streak that long during their rookie seasons are Mike Croel, Micah Parsons and Javon Kearse — all of whom won Defensive Rookie of the Year.
I’m not sure Pearce has been quite on their level as a rookie. Those 10.5 sacks include a strip-sack in which Pearce was unblocked off the edge. They also include a handful of coverage sacks in which Pearce didn’t win quickly, capitalizing on his team’s coverage or another defender’s pressure — including both of his sacks against the Saints on Sunday. He has had his moments, of course, with a sweet spin move against fellow rookie Armand Membou for a sack against the Jets, but those other guys were more consistent and destructive during their rookie campaigns than Pearce has been in 2025.
There’s still a very good pass-rush prospect here. Pearce’s pressure rate of 13.5% is above league average, though it doesn’t lead this draft class. Pearce has 18 quick pressures, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is second among rookies but much closer to players such as Nic Scourton or Donovan Ezeiruaku (who each have 12) than the player atop that leaderboard. Speaking of that player …
If you put a ton of stock in Next Gen Stats pressure metrics, Carter is already a superstar. The Giants rookie has a whopping 48 quick pressures this season. That’s more than any other player in football, let alone rookies. His 10.3% quick pressure rate is second in the NFL among regular defenders, trailing only Broncos standout Nik Bonitto. ESPN’s pass rush win rate has Carter just behind Will Anderson Jr. and Myles Garrett near the very top of the leaderboard.
Sacks aren’t everything, but it does seem to matter at least a little bit that Carter has managed to turn those 48 quick pressures into only four sacks. A rule of thumb I’ve found in the past is that pass rushers typically turn about 45% of their quarterback knockdowns into sacks. Carter has 23 knockdowns, which would typically produce about 10 sacks. But he has only four, and through the end of November, Carter somehow had only one half-sack to his name.
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Are the pressure numbers inflated? Maybe a little bit. Carter has 11 unblocked pressures this season, which is the fourth most in the league. At the same time, though, other Giants have benefited from Carter’s efforts. While the first-rounder has only those four sacks, he has created 10.5 sacks for himself and his teammates this season. Meanwhile, teammate Brian Burns has 16.5 sacks to his name but only seven sacks created.
Neither player — nor anyone associated with the Giants — has been remotely effective against the run, which further hurts Carter’s candidacy. There have been times when Carter has helped create scramble lanes for quarterbacks with his rushes, which comes with the territory for other great pass rushers, too. The tradeoff is usually a boatload of sacks, which more than makes up for a stray scramble or two. Those didn’t come for Carter in 2025, but don’t be surprised if he posts a gaudy sack total in 2026.
The 33rd pick was rangy and ever-present for an excellent Browns defense. Schwesinger made 15.3% of the tackles in Browns games before hitting injured reserve with a quad injury, which was the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. The 22-year-old was also a very sound tackler; even while running one of the highest tackle rates in the league, Schwesinger missed on only 6% of his tackle attempts, an above-average rate for players who got to ball carriers as often as he did this season.
His nine tackles for loss against the run were tied for fourth in the league, a particularly impressive feat given that Myles Garrett was one of the three players ahead of him. Schwesinger also picked off two passes and managed 2.5 sacks and nine knockdowns as a blitzer. His range slipped a bit after he suffered a high ankle sprain in midseason, but Schwesinger is already one of the better off-ball linebackers in the NFL and should have been a Pro Bowl pick in the AFC.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
My top pick after Week 4: Tyler Warren
My top pick after Week 9: Tyler Warren
Of all the player awards this season, Offensive Rookie of the Year might be the tightest race of the lot. There are plenty of viable candidates, but very few of them were consistent contributors throughout the season. If you built a receiver out of Emeka Egbuka’s first half and Luther Burden III’s second half, he would have a legitimate case for Rookie of the Year, but neither player did enough during their weaker halves to make it to the top three.
There were a bunch of impactful running backs in this much-vaunted draft class, but not a single one of them managed to top 1,000 rushing yards in their debut season, which seems impossible given how many highlights the class put together on a weekly basis. There’s a legitimate case for TreVeyon Henderson, who was a big-play machine while averaging more than 5 yards per carry for the Patriots, but I didn’t end up finding space for any of the RBs on my list.
I ended up with four candidates for three spots, with the third-place nod ending up as a battle between two quarterbacks.
Tyler Shough’s impressive second half with the Saints has deservedly earned the second-round pick Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration. In comparing him to Dart, who had been the most productive rookie quarterback for most of the season, it’s fair to suggest that Shough has been a slightly better passer, while Dart has made up that difference and then some with his legs.
Dart vs. Shough
QBCmp.Att.Cmp. %YardsYards/Att.TDsTOsRush
yardsRush TDsSacksSack
yardsTotal
QBRDart21633963.7%2,2726.7151048793515257.5Shough22132767.6%2,3847.310918633119549.7
Dart has been a more efficient quarterback by Total QBR while starting four more games and facing a more difficult schedule. Shough posted a better record, although his four-game winning streak did include wins over the Jets and Titans. Both players have had to deal with injuries on offense. Shough might have been ahead of Dart before Week 18, when he had a rough game against the Falcons, but the margin was thin here. Both guys should get a full season as their teams’ starters in 2026.
Warren nearly went tape-to-tape as the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he slowed down as the season wore along. He averaged 57.6 receiving yards per game and 2.0 yards per route run during the first half of the season, but that fell to 37.4 receiving yards per game and 1.4 yards per route run from Week 10 onward, with little of the verticality we saw from him earlier in the season.
Over the whole of the season, though, Warren led all rookie tight ends in receptions (76) and receiving yards (817). He added three first downs and a touchdown on six carries as a short-yardage back. Warren’s versatility made him a joy to watch in Shane Steichen’s offense, as the Colts used him as an in-line tight end, a split-out receiver, a rushing threat from the wing, a fullback/H-back and even a Wildcat quarterback. He’s not the pure receiving threat that Brock Bowers was during the Raiders standout’s rookie season, but Warren is plenty explosive and a unique player for the Colts to build around in the years to come.
The only rookie to finish over 1,000 rushing or receiving yards did just enough to claim the Rookie of the Year nod for me. McMillan reached 100 receiving yards only twice, but he was consistently the most impactful receiver in Carolina’s offense and the player Bryce Young looked to when the Panthers needed a big play.
McMillan finished the season with 27 catches for 369 yards on third and fourth down. No other rookie topped 17 catches or 232 yards on those downs. And 22 of those 27 catches turned into first downs, so McMillan wasn’t just racking up empty yardage on checkdowns in those spots, either. Drops were a problem — a common issue for rookies — but McMillan was able to stretch the field and separate from man coverage in a way that other Panthers receivers haven’t consistently been able to do in the Young era.
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Protector of the Year
My top pick after Week 4: Penei Sewell
My top pick after Week 9: Dion Dawkins
As I mentioned with my All-Pro ballot, evaluating this season’s offensive linemen is a chaotic exercise. Just about every star tackle has missed meaningful time because of injuries, with stalwarts such as Joe Alt and Lane Johnson disqualified from the conversation by missing most of the season. Laremy Tunsil deserves to be in the discussion, but injuries will essentially cost the star Commanders OT more than five games of action. Not playing at all is better than showing up and playing poorly, but I believe this award should be about who produced the most cumulative impact over the entire season, not who was most impressive on a snap-by-snap basis.
The oft-injured Williams was healthy all season before suffering a hamstring injury on the opening snap of the Niners’ Week 17 win over the Bears, and he then missed the regular-season finale. I think Tunsil was every bit as good as Williams over the entire season and potentially better as a pass blocker, but Williams wins the tiebreaker by simply being on the field more often.
The future Hall of Famer requires no introduction, but it’s still a treat to see a 37-year-old Williams plowing through defenders in the run game and anticipating just about every pass-rush move he sees isolated one-on-one in pass protection. The only sack I saw Williams allow all season was to Myles Garrett, and it might have been Garrett’s most otherworldly sack of the year, as it looked like the Browns star broke the laws of physics to beat Williams to his inside.
Playing in a dropback scheme that ran play-action at one of the lowest rates in the league — without tight end George Kittle for long stretches of time and alongside multiple different left guards — Williams was one of the few stars the 49ers could call upon for the vast majority of the season.
When the Colts were doing their 2007 Patriots impression during the first half of 2025, Nelson was playing every bit as well as anybody else on their offense. He was fun to watch all season as the driver of their run game, with coach Shane Steichen using Nelson as a bludgeoning force at the point of attack and as a puller to take out linebackers and defensive backs on gap runs. And 330-pound linemen aren’t supposed to have Nelson’s athleticism, especially as they approach 30 and have more than 8,000 NFL snaps on their bodies.
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Nelson and Joe Thuney were the two starting guards who didn’t allow a single sack all season. They each allowed just four quick pressures to opposing pass rushers. Nelson was one-on-one against defenders slightly more often, and while Thuney is such a consummate pro and played a huge role in Chicago’s resurgent run game, Nelson is just the tiniest bit more spectacular given his ability to get on the edge.
And then you could make the same case for Brewer, who had a career year amid an otherwise frustrating season for the Dolphins’ offense. If you’re wondering how a team that didn’t have a great passing attack, was down its top wide receiver and went without its highest-paid lineman in Austin Jackson for most of the season managed to move the football, the answer is the run game. And while De’Von Achane is an incredibly entertaining back in the open field, that run game doesn’t go without the work Brewer put in.
Brewer is the closest active player to what Jason Kelce was at his peak for the Eagles: an athletic, undersized center who opens up all kinds of possibilities for what the Dolphins can do with their rushing attack. He has been so much fun to watch on zone runs and when the Dolphins get him to the edge on counter and pin/pull concepts.
A lineman blocking a linebacker or a defensive back is a size mismatch, but in the open field, linemen aren’t always able to square up their blocks or simply end up missing the defender altogether. Brewer is so good at getting enough on those blocks to influence defenders and create run lanes for Achane, though. And he has the physicality to finish those blocks, too; the highlight-reel block for Brewer might have been driving Frankie Luvu to the sideline for several full seconds before pancaking the Commanders linebacker to the ground on a 23-yard Achane run in the first quarter last month. He’s not a household name, and he isn’t on a team anybody wanted to watch for most of the season, but Brewer had a special year.
Comeback Player of the Year
I obviously have to give an honorary nod to Philip Rivers, who came back from five years out of football and gave a reasonable accounting of himself while playing one of the league’s best defenses in his first start, at times without either of his starting tackles. I’m not sure Rivers lasted long enough before giving way to Riley Leonard to win the award, but he deserves a ton of respect for answering Shane Steichen’s call and stepping onto the field at age 44. Remember that he had the Colts in position to beat the top seed in the NFC after a fourth-quarter drive, only for the Colts’ defense to blow that lead.
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After missing virtually all of his rookie season because of a knee injury, the 2024 first-round pick returned to the lineup and locked in as Pittsburgh’s right tackle. Fautanu more than held his own, as he ranked 21st in pass block win rate among tackles with 200 pass-rush wins or losses. Along with center Zach Frazier and right guard Mason McCormick, the right side of the Pittsburgh line has three ascending players in their second year of pro football.
Returning from a serious leg injury, Hutchinson looked every bit as impressive as he did before surgery. He set career highs in sacks (14.5) and knockdowns (35) during a difficult season for the Lions, all while facing the seventh-highest rate of chips or double-teams of any edge rusher. The No. 2 pick in 2022 easily deserved the four-year, $180 million extension he signed in October.
Last season was bleak for Olave, who dealt with concussions while playing for a losing Saints team. By the end of the season, the Saints had shut down their star wide receiver, who admitted that he considered retirement during the offseason. It would have been a shame to see such a talented wideout leave the game so early in his career, and in 2025, Olave was able to reemerge as one of the best receivers in the league.
While he didn’t always have the sort of quarterback play his talents deserve, Olave racked up 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns in what was his best pro campaign to date. After Tyler Shough took over as the starting quarterback in Week 9, Olave averaged 82.5 receiving yards, the 10th-highest mark in the NFL. And Olave was able to stay on the field all season before missing the Week 18 finale because of a blood clot in his lungs. If Shough continues to impress, Olave could end up challenging for Pro Bowl consideration next season.
Coach of the Year
My top pick after Week 4: Dan Campbell
My top pick after Week 9: Shane Steichen
This award invariably goes to the coach whose team exceeds its preseason expectations by the most wins, which is fine. But it leads to a universe in which Brian Daboll, Jason Garrett and Matt Nagy have more Coach of the Year wins over the past two decades than Andy Reid or Mike Tomlin, which doesn’t feel right to me. I don’t want to ignore coaches who have inspired significant turnarounds, but if a team has run hot in one-score games or snuck its way into the playoffs as a 7-seed, I also don’t want to overreact and treat that as a legendary coaching performance relative to those guys who are just great year after year.
I also want to reward coaches who drive performance on their preferred side of the ball, because it seems likely they have more control over what happens there. Rewarding Nagy as Coach of the Year when Vic Fangio’s defense was driving the 2018 Bears to the postseason is one we look back at that didn’t make a ton of sense.
With that in mind, one surprising name not in my top three is Mike Vrabel. I have nothing but good things to say about what Vrabel has done for the Pats in his first season at the helm, but it’s the offense (and a historically easy schedule) pushing the Patriots atop the AFC East. Heading into Week 18, the Patriots ranked sixth in offensive DVOA, but they were just 25th in defensive DVOA. Vrabel is not the one calling plays on defense, but his background as a player and assistant comes on that side of the ball. I would absolutely be open to picking Josh McDaniels as a Coordinator of the Year if I were handing out that award, but Vrabel just misses out here.
The battle for the third spot came down to Johnson and Jaguars coach Liam Coen, the two young offensive minds who have turned around their organizations and produced unlikely playoff berths in their first seasons as head coaches. Coen has done great work rebuilding the run game in Jacksonville and has Trevor Lawrence playing the best football of his career, but Coen’s offense has been sloppy with procedural penalties throughout the year, and the Bears’ offense (10th in EPA per play) has been just a tiny bit better than the Jags’ offense (13th).
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Johnson has also turned around the Bears and the fortunes of his first overall pick at quarterback by building an impressive run game, as D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have formed an impressive one-two punch in the Chicago backfield. Caleb Williams has had his issues with staying on target as a passer, but like Lawrence, he has gotten better as the season has gone along, owing to familiarity within the offense and an increased level of confidence. Johnson’s game management has been messy at times, especially in the season-opening loss to the Vikings, but there are few playcallers who terrify opposing defensive coordinators more than him.
The 49ers came up short Saturday night as they tried to win the NFC West and earn a first-round bye, but Shanahan’s team merely settling for 12 wins and a playoff berth shouldn’t be treated as anything short of a wild success. The 49ers were annihilated by injuries yet again in 2025, losing Brock Purdy, George Kittle and Nick Bosa for significant time before the end of September. The likes of Fred Warner, Ricky Pearsall and Mykel Williams followed, while Brandon Aiyuk never made it back on the field.
Shanahan and these Niners simply kept finding ways to score. The 49ers finished the season as a top-10 offense despite playing backup QB Mac Jones, who had washed out with the Patriots and Jaguars, for half the season. They won 12 games in the league’s toughest division, pulling out victories over the Seahawks, Rams and Bears along the way. Those injuries are likely to limit San Francisco’s playoff ceiling, but in a transitional season for their roster, Shanahan has done incredible work to deliver the 49ers back to the postseason.
Last season, Kevin O’Connell won Coach of the Year for leading a Vikings team with Sam Darnold at quarterback to a 14-3 record. This season, I’m arguing that the guy whose team has a 14-3 record and Sam Darnold at quarterback should also be honored. If Saturday night’s game for the NFC West title was a battle for the top seed and a first-round bye, it might have been for the Coach of the Year award, too.
The difference — and the reason Macdonald deserves this award even more than O’Connell did last season — is that specialty argument I made earlier. O’Connell helped elevate Darnold’s game and did an impressive job of building an effective offense around the journeyman quarterback, but the Vikings’ success was driven by their defense in 2024. Coordinator Brian Flores’ unit was second in EPA per play, while the Darnold-led offense was a more modest 15th.
Macdonald is a defensive wizard, though, and again, it’s the defense really leading the way. For the second year in a row, the Darnold-led offense is just on the right side of average, as the Seahawks are 14th in the league in EPA per play on offense. They finished just behind the Texans for second in EPA per play on defense, a figure only enhanced by what they did to Brock Purdy & Co. on Saturday night, holding the 49ers to three points — the first time that has happened to a Shanahan-coached team since his first game as a head coach in 2017.
1:02
Seahawks clinch NFC’s top seed with win over 49ers
The Seahawks defeat the 49ers 13-3 to win the NFC West and secure the NFC’s top seed.
As was the case when he was coaching in Baltimore, it’s also remarkable to see how many players improve under Macdonald. There was a second-year breakout for defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, who was just on the fringes of All-Pro consideration as I put together my picks. Devon Witherspoon is a superstar, although he missed too much time early in the season to get the attention he deserved. Macdonald has depth players such as Ty Okada and Drake Thomas, who had a critical interception against the 49ers, playing like solid starters.
It’s most noticeable with the veterans who have been acquired since Macdonald’s arrival. Ernest Jones IV was traded twice in a matter of weeks last season, and he was an All-Pro for me at linebacker this season. DeMarcus Lawrence had his most impactful season as a pass rusher since 2018 after leaving the Cowboys. Leonard Williams, acquired the year before the Seahawks hired Macdonald, has played the best football of his career in Seattle. Josh Jobe, a practice-squad signing from the Eagles in August 2024, has been an above-average starting cornerback this season.
Darnold and the offense have turned the ball over 28 times, the sort of figure that usually sinks a team by failing to come away with points and putting the defense in compromised positions as it tries to protect short fields. But Macdonald’s defense has been more than up to answering the bell. He has been the best coach in the league this season.
Defensive Player of the Year
My top pick after Week 4: Nik Bonitto
My top pick after Week 9: Myles Garrett
If you’re looking for a controversial pick for this award, don’t get your hopes up. There’s more debate to be had about the players finishing second and third than first. My top three ended up entirely on the defensive line, as there wasn’t a linebacker who had a Zack Baun-esque season and filled up the stat sheet, while many of the league’s top cornerbacks missed significant time. My third-placed selection missed three-plus games himself, but he was also dominant enough across the rest of the season to earn plaudits as the best interior defensive lineman in football.
If you didn’t watch the Titans closely in 2025, one of the few things you missed was seeing Simmons completely and utterly dominate opposing guards and centers for four months. Simmons got off to a shop-wrecking start against the eventual top-seeded Broncos in Week 1, forcing a fumble and inspiring an interception as he nearly singlehandedly kept Tennessee in the game into the fourth quarter. On a team without much of an edge threat and with a replacement-level secondary, Simmons was the star every offense knew to worry about and couldn’t stop.
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Simmons led all defensive tackles in quick pressures (21) and pressures against double-teams (17). He was second in sacks behind the Broncos’ John Franklin-Myers despite missing those three-plus games in midseason. Simmons also finished second in pass rush win rate on the interior behind the Chiefs’ Chris Jones and led all defensive tackles in tackles for loss against the run (eight). He lived in opposing backfields throughout 2025.
The best mortal edge rusher in the NFL. For a defensive end listed at 243 pounds who came into the league with concerns about his strength and size, it’s just remarkable to see Anderson overpower linemen and play with such violence on a weekly basis. Anderson routinely bull-rushes bigger offensive linemen into the opposing quarterback while still maintaining the quickness to bend around them and get to the outside.
Anderson’s 12 sacks tied for eighth, but he has been more impressive by the Next Gen Stats measures, where his 8.0% quick pressure rate is third in the NFL. The only player with more pressures was Aidan Hutchinson. And just for fun, Anderson was eighth in run stop win rate on the edge. He’s one of several stars on arguably the league’s best defense.
Well, you shouldn’t be surprised. Garrett wasn’t able to blow away the prior sack record as teams focused on shutting him down over the final few games. On Sunday, the Bengals chipped or double-teamed Garrett on more than 61% of their dropbacks, the second-highest rate for any edge defender in any game this season. Garrett said he had only a handful of one-on-ones in dropback situations all day, but with a ridiculous get off of 0.23 seconds, the future Hall of Famer was able to take down Joe Burrow and set the single-season sack record with 23.
In addition to setting the sack record, Garrett forced three fumbles and was second in the league with 12 tackles for loss against the run. His 33 combined tackles for loss are the second most for any player in NFL history behind the 39 J.J. Watt racked up during the 2012 season. Watt’s four-year run between 2012 and 2015 was the most dominant stretch I’ve seen from a defender in my time covering the league. Garrett’s 2025 season belongs right up there with those Watt campaigns and the other best seasons by any defender in league history.
0:29
Myles Garrett breaks single-season record with 23rd sack
Myles Garrett sacks Joe Burrow to break the NFL single-season sack record.
Offensive Player of the Year
My top pick after Week 4: Puka Nacua
My top pick after Week 9: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Longtime readers will know that I use this space to focus on the league’s non-quarterbacks, because the MVP award almost always goes to signal-callers, and there’s no logical reason the offensive player who wins MVP wouldn’t also be the best offensive player in the league. With a two-player MVP race, it would be a cop out to give one the top award and the other the Offensive Player of the Year hardware, which is why I’m worried that’s what will happen when the voting actually plays out next month.
This award is also a two-man race, but let’s pay our respects to one of the more unheralded dominant performances of 2025.
If we define a player by how much better they were than the other guys at their position, McBride might be an MVP candidate. The Cardinals standout captured the triple crown for tight ends, blowing away the competition along the way. McBride’s 126 catches and 1,239 receiving yards were 38 receptions and 311 yards ahead of second-place Kyle Pitts Sr. And while McBride seemed unable to score touchdowns in years past, his 11 TDs were tied with the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert for the league lead among tight ends.
McBride amassed massive volume from his position-high 169 targets, but he was still efficient enough to finish third among tight ends in yards per route run behind San Francisco’s George Kittle and Chicago’s Colston Loveland. He also dropped just one pass all season, giving the fourth-year pro the second-best drop rate among receivers with 100 targets or more, behind Falcons wideout Drake London.
What a fun season from one of the many superstar receivers to come out of Ohio State in recent years. As I noted in my All-Pro column, Smith-Njigba racked up more than 44% of the receiving yards amassed by all Seahawks in 2025, the highest share by any receiver in a season since Brandon Marshall was over 45% for the Bears in 2012. With all due respect to Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed and AJ Barner, Smith-Njigba was the only player opposing defenses needed to worry about in the Seattle passing game — but nobody was able to stop him.
The best play in football in 2025 was throwing the ball to Smith-Njigba off play-action. The third-year wideout averaged 5.9 yards per route run with play-action, the best mark for any wideout since 2018. The chunk yardage Smith-Njigba picked up on those plays made for consistent big days, as he had nine different 100-yard games, more than any other player. He just wasn’t quite as dominant as his counterpart in the NFC West.
1:25
Why Mike Clay backs JSN for fantasy’s breakout player
Mike Clay shares why he’s picking Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Drake Maye as fantasy football’s breakout player.
Even while missing a game because of an ankle injury, Nacua did more than enough to earn this honor. Smith-Njigba (3.86) narrowly topped Nacua (3.82) in yards per route run after a quiet Week 18 for the Rams star, but Nacua led the league with a 98 in ESPN’s receiver scores, the third-best mark posted by any wideout in any season since 2017. And according to Next Gen Stats, the Rams star led the league in receptions over expected (18.7) and receiving yards over expected (449), owing both to excellent quarterback play from Matthew Stafford and a propensity for absolutely ridiculous catches, such as his one-handed catch on a fade for a touchdown against the Cardinals on Sunday.
Everything else Nacua does puts him over the top. He’s incredibly physical after the catch and simply overpowers opposing defensive backs. He’s an effective runner for the Rams on jet sweeps and racked up 105 rushing yards, five first downs and a touchdown on 10 carries. Nacua is also one of the NFL’s best blocking wideouts. He might be the most complete player in the NFL.
Most Valuable Player
My top pick after Week 4: Josh Allen
My top pick after Week 9: Patrick Mahomes
My top pick after Week 14: Drake Maye
There are some years when I need to eliminate 10-plus candidates as honorable mentions before getting to the top three for this award. This isn’t one of those years. It’s a two-man race, and there’s frankly a significant chasm between those two and the other candidates. Sam Darnold’s struggles since the first Rams game have taken him out of the race, and while Trevor Lawrence has been brilliant over the past month or so, his midseason struggles with turnovers take the Jaguars starter out, too.
Jordan Love was third when I looked at this race a few weeks ago, but the Packers star had a difficult game against the Broncos and then suffered a concussion in the Week 16 loss to the Bears, which ended up being his final snaps of the regular season. I was tempted to put Nacua or Garrett in the third spot, but I ended up with all quarterbacks in my top three.
When he’s playing his best, Allen has been the most dominant player in football over the past three seasons, if not longer. Playing within an offense that hasn’t had even average receivers and routinely asks Allen to be the answer to whatever problems defenses present, he has been remarkable. In Buffalo victories this season, Allen completed 70.4% of his passes, threw 19 touchdowns against four picks and ran for 406 yards and 12 more scores on the ground.
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In their losses, though, Allen’s 36.5 Total QBR was just 23rd in the league. He threw as many touchdowns (six) as picks and ran for only two scores. The best version of Allen was as spectacular as it had been in years past, but we saw a frustrating version of Allen more often. He played a meaningful and significant role in losses to the Patriots, Texans and Eagles, turning the ball over and/or missing makable throws out of structure.
Allen’s interception rate nearly doubled and his sack rate nearly tripled from where they were a year ago during his MVP campaign. The 2024 version of Allen relentlessly moved the Bills forward, combining the spectacular highlight-reel plays that have become the veteran’s trademark with a near-complete dearth of negative plays. But the negative plays are back this season, and while Allen’s still an incredibly valuable QB, those issues are why the 29-year-old drops from first to third.
If you’ve been reading over the past few weeks, you know that I preferred Maye in my look at the MVP in December and then as my first-team All-Pro pick last week. Stafford closed the gap a bit with a big game against a porous Cardinals defense in Week 18, but that’s not enough for me to lean toward him. I’ll explain why.
Let’s start with the simplest reality: Outside of the schedule, there’s really not an argument to be made for Stafford over Maye as MVP. The Patriots won 14 games and their division. The Rams won 12 games and did not. I don’t place much stock in quarterback wins mattering in this discussion, but to the extent that team record and performance are relevant, that factor favors Maye.
I’m not sure how anyone could make a case that Maye has more help than his counterpart, either. Stafford is playing under Sean McVay with both Davante Adams and the wideout I chose as the Offensive Player of the Year. His rushing attack finished the season with a 51.6% success rate on designed runs, the third-best mark for any offense in any season going back through 2007. Stefon Diggs has been great for Maye, but he has been limited to a rotational role because of his knee. The Pats have hit big plays in the run game, but Maye has three receivers posting elite catch rates over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. I put that on Maye as opposed to Diggs, Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins all turning into Jerry Rice, with the quarterback leading the NFL in completion percentage over expectation.
Quantitatively, it’s much easier to make a case for Maye than it is for Stafford. Stafford has thrown more often and has more passing touchdowns, but so many of those are short-yardage throws in spots where the likelihood of a score is already high. Maye has been notably more efficient, leading the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per attempt.
Maye vs. Stafford
QBCmp.Att.Cmp. %YardsYards/Att.TDsINTsSacksSack
yardsRush
yardsEPA/DBTotal
QBRMaye35449272.0%4,3948.9318472014500.2777.0Stafford38859765.0%4,7077.94682315010.2171.5
Maye has taken twice as many sacks as his veteran counterpart, but because so many of those sacks have come close to the line of scrimmage, he has lost only 51 more sack yards than Stafford this season. And that gap is more than closed by the massive difference in what they’ve offered with their legs, as Maye has run for 38 first downs and four touchdowns, while Stafford hasn’t produced a single first down as a runner all season. Maye comfortably leads Stafford in both EPA per dropback and Total QBR, the latter of which is opponent-adjusted.
Maye’s schedule has to play a starring role in the debate if you’re arguing for Stafford. And while I lean toward Maye, there’s no denying that the Patriots have played a breezy slate in 2025. As I mentioned last month, per Pro-Football-Reference.com‘s Simple Rating System, the Patriots were in line to play one of the 10 easiest schedules in NFL history since the merger. Obviously, that’s going to help make life much easier for Maye.
The context missing from the schedule argument, though, is that overall team strength isn’t the same thing as the strength of the opposing pass defense. As an example, Stafford played two games against the 49ers, who are a good team on the whole but field one of the worst pass defenses in the league. And Maye went up against the Browns; Cleveland has a horrible offense, but its Myles Garrett-led defense is excellent against the pass.
Using each team’s finish in pass defense EPA per play from NFL Next Gen Stats, Maye’s average opponent ranked 20th against the pass this season. Stafford’s average opponent was 17th. Do the same test with QBR instead of pass defense EPA, and their schedules were virtually identical; Maye’s average opponent ranked 18.6 out of 32 defenses, while Stafford’s average pass defense was at 18.4. While these two quarterbacks faced massively different opposition on the whole, that doesn’t hold true for the pass defenses.
Last week, I talked about Maye and Stafford against common opponents, but I’m going to take that one step further. Maye outperforming Stafford against the same opposition tells part of the story, but it leaves out a piece of the equation. If everyone got to play Maye’s slate this season, would other quarterbacks also be producing career seasons?
Overwhelmingly, the answer to that question is no. Maye posted a 77.0 QBR against his schedule this season. Stafford posted a 57.7 QBR in six games against common opponents, losing to the Falcons and Panthers. The rest of the league posted a 58.5 QBR against those same teams on the whole throughout the season. The only quarterback who threw more than 100 passes against those teams and posted a better QBR than Maye is Dak Prescott, who was 0.8 points higher than Maye over a much smaller sample.
Facing the Patriots’ opponents
Cmp. %Yards/AttEPA/DBTotal
QBRMaye72.0%8.90.377.0Stafford67.2%8.00.157.7NFL66.4%7.40.158.5
If Maye was really a product of his schedule, his performance would be much more in line with what average quarterbacks did against the same opponents in 2025. Instead, not only have we found that Maye’s schedule of pass opponents wasn’t much easier than Stafford’s slate, we’ve also found that Maye grossly outplayed Stafford and the rest of the NFL against the same opponents.
I don’t want to take anything away from Stafford, who has been incredibly fun to watch this season. If he does win MVP, it won’t be a travesty. He’s playing excellent football on a great team as the driving force of one of the league’s best offenses. If you really value those short passing touchdowns and his increased passing volume while downplaying what Maye has done with his legs, you’ll probably prefer Stafford.
I’m just not sure I can make that same case myself. In past weeks, I’ve suggested that Maye was fractionally ahead of Stafford. Now, with the season done and a closer look at how (and who) they’ve both played, Maye seems like the clear MVP choice to me. We’ll see if the voters feel the same way in a few weeks.
