What I’m most looking forward to

If we’re lucky, a fully healthy campaign from Victor Wembanyama. He’s already shown flashes of his insane ceiling in his previous two seasons. He’s such a difficult matchup with the ball in his hands, and on defense, he changes the entire calculus of opposing teams’ schemes with his length. Jakub Frankowicz

From Wembanyama’s looming superstardom (he’s 7ft 5in now?!) to 18-year-old Cooper Flagg’s rookie spark, this season feels like a generational crossroads. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s encore, Paolo Banchero’s breakout and Nikola Jokić’s quiet dominance all converge. The old heads still matter, but the league now truly belongs to its twentysomethings: audacious, unpredictable and already rewriting the hierarchy. Bryan Armen Graham

The revamped Atlanta Hawks, whose summer trade for Kristaps Porziņģis sent shockwaves across the league. The question isn’t if the unicorn big man will vibe with Trae Young, an unselfish point guard famous for scoring threes in bunches; the question is, when will Porziņģis fall injured and how much time will he ultimately miss? Andrew Lawrence

The battle of emerging contenders in the wide-open Eastern Conference. With Tatum and Haliburton sidelined with achilles injuries, multiple teams will have an opportunity to seize power. I expect more intensity in the East now that earning a trip to the NBA finals seems more attainable. AR Shaw

Biggest offseason development

The off-court issues with the Los Angeles Clippers and the allegations they circumvented the salary cap to sign Kawhi Leonard. As details continue to come out, it leaves a black cloud hanging over the team and a league until they conclude their investigation. JF

Two earthquakes: Kevin Durant to Houston, and the East losing Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton to season-long achilles rehabs. KD supercharges a massive, physical Rockets core, while Boston and Indiana’s injuries fling the East wide open for New York, Cleveland and (my sleeper finals pick) Orlando. Secondary wave: Denver bolstering Jokić’s minutes with true bench competence. BAG

The free-agent addition of Kevin Durant has Houston Rockets fans dreaming big. Photograph: Mike Stewart/AP

Kevin Durant move to Houston was significant, given that the league’s most promising young team now has one of the best scorers in league history on their side. (They’d give up Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green and a number of draft picks in a record seven-team swap.) After having to share the ball with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal for so long, Durant, 37, can get back to what he does best: being the undisputed No 1 option. AL

Durant joining the surging Rockets. Last season’s No 2 seed took the biggest step forward by adding the league’s most lethal scorer who will also provide leadership to a youthful group. The Rockets were bullied and ousted in the first round of the playoffs by the veteran Warriors. But the addition of Durant ensures that they will no longer be pushed around in their quest for a first NBA championship since 1995. AS

Young player to make the superstar leap

If we presume that Wembanyama is already a superstar (which I do), my pick is Cooper Flagg, who has been on the radar of the NBA since he had a now-mythical scrimmage as part of the practice squad went toe-to-toe with the USA’s men’s Olympic squad, pre-Paris. JF

Orlando’s Paolo Banchero. The scoring was already there for the No 1 pick from the 2022 draft. Add Desmond Bane’s spacing, Franz Wagner’s two-way glue and a meatier on-ball role for the 6ft 10in power forward. If Banchero can trim the midrange diet and make a home at the stripe, he goes from All-Star to the All-NBA first team conversation. BAG

Wembanyama’s glabrous adventures in China learning the art of war from Shaolin monks made headlines. But the pilgrimage he made to see Hakeem Olajuwon is no less significant. Big men have been seeking out the Dream to learn the secrets of his devastating low-post game for decades. Wemby, though, is already applying those lessons while showing flashes of Shaq, Giannis and more NBA greats. Add all that with the two inches Wemby grew over the summer, and what you have is the makings of the NBA’s next top superstar. AL

The Hawks’ Jalen Johnson averaged 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists before suffering a season-ending injury. With Porziņģis joining him in the Atlanta frontcourt, Johnson will have more one-on-one offensive opportunities and a chance to increase his statistical averages. Look for the dexterous forward to have a breakout season and earn his first NBA All-Star appearance. AS

San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama could factor into the MVP conversation in his third NBA season. Photograph: Justin Casterline/Getty Images

The surprise package will be …

… the Sacramento Kings. Domantas Sabonis is probably one of the most under-discussed players in the NBA, and while the Kings have failed to launch on a number of occasions, this year’s edition is filled with veteran players who could make it work under the right system. JF

… the Toronto Raptors. Scottie Barnes plus Brandon Ingram gives the Raptors the length, shot creation and lineup versatility to skip the play-in entirely. Immanuel Quickley’s pace and RJ Barrett’s downhill juice stabilize the half court, while Darko Rajaković pulls the strings of a top-10 defense. It won’t always be pretty, but it will be effective. BAG

… the Sacramento Kings. I know, I know, the roster makes even less sense now that it did before the last-minute pickup of Russell Westbrook. But remember: the Wizards didn’t look like they were going anywhere when Westbrook joined that squad five years ago, and all he did was lead them to a rare playoff berth and turn Bradley Beal into the league’s top scorer while averaging a triple-double. I could easily see Westbrook pulling off the same trick with the cap-crunched Kings, aka the California Chicago Bulls. AL

… the Philadelphia 76ers. Due to a disastrous season marred by injuries, the 76ers have become an afterthought. Their big three (Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey) only played 15 games together, but can change the dynamics of the East if they can remain healthy this season. Combined with emerging young talent such as VJ Edgecombe, Jared McCain and Quentin Grimes, a healthy Sixers team will possess enough firepower to make a deep run in the playoffs. AS

One bold prediction

The Lakers miss the playoffs. Los Angeles’s depth remains an issue and unless Deandre Ayton makes a leap, they’ll struggle with bigs as well. Without another splashy midseason trade, I don’t see this roster making the tournament despite their abundance of top-end talent led by LeBron James, Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves. JF

The Thunder become the third 70-win team ever. With a league-best defense, absurd depth and a healthy Chet amplifying Shai’s late-game mastery, OKC steamroll the regular season even while load-managing. Whether they can catch the 2016 Dubs will be an open question until springtime. BAG

Cooper Flagg, still only 18, may have the skillset in place to be an NBA superstar out of the box. Photograph: Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Steve Ballmer is forced to sell the Clippers after the whole no-show job debacle with Kawhi, who becomes a free agent. AL

Wembanyama will record the first quadruple-double since Spurs legend David Robinson in 1994. Wemby will score, rebound and block shots with ease on a nightly basis, but he’ll also have a few games with double-digit assists. This season, he’ll achieve a quadruple-double and approach a quintuple-double, a feat only accomplished by Wilt Chamberlin in 1968. AS

Most Valuable Player

Jokić has won three of the last five MVP trophies and finished runner-up twice. With a style that will age well as he starts his first full season since turning 30, it’s safe to presume he’ll be a top contender until Denver fail to put a playoff team around him. JF

Anthony Edwards. Narrative, numbers and team success align. The Wolves’ continuity plus a top-five defense keeps them near the West’s summit and Ant Man’s improved shot profile fuels a 29-6-5 line with late-game résumé moments. Jokić will be superior by metrics (and hamstrung by voter fatigue, again), while Edwards will nick the balloting on victories and vibes. BAG

Wembanyama. See above. AL

Wembanyama’s numbers will increase in every statistical category on his way to becoming the NBA’s most unguardable force since Shaquille O’Neal’s 2000 MVP season. If the Spurs manage to win more than 45 games in the treacherous Western Conference, Wembanyama will usurp Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić in the MVP race. AS

Denver’s Nikola Jokić, right, and Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards project to be among the favorites for this year’s NBA Most Valuable Player award. Photograph: David Berding/Getty Images

Eastern Conference playoff teams

New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks. JF

Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors, Milwaukee Bucks, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics. BAG

New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Milwaukee Bucks, Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons, Philadelphia 76ers. AL

New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks. AS

Western Conference playoff teams

Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs. JF

Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, LA Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, LA Lakers, Dallas Mavericks. BAG

Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, LA Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies. AL

Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, LA Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, LA Clippers, San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors. AS

Jalen Brunson’s Knicks and Donovan Mitchell’s Cavaliers appear headed on a collision course in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Photograph: Elsa/Getty Images

Eastern Conference finals

Cleveland Cavaliers over New York Knicks. JF

Orlando Magic over Cleveland Cavaliers. BAG

Cleveland Cavaliers over New York Knicks. AL

New York Knicks over Cleveland Cavaliers. AS

Western Conference finals

Houston Rockets over Oklahoma City Thunder. JF

Oklahoma City Thunder over Houston Rockets. BAG

Oklahoma City Thunder over Minnesota Timberwolves. AL

Houston Rockets over Oklahoma City Thunder. AS

NBA finals

Houston Rockets 4-2 Cleveland Cavaliers. The Kevin Durant trade was a huge splash for a Rockets team already on the rise. Durant’s efficiency will allow youngsters like Şengün, Thompson and Smith Jr to still get their touches while giving the team a superstar. JF

Oklahoma City Thunder 4-0 Orlando Magic. Orlando’s length and defense keep every game tight, but Oklahoma City’s experience and half-court precision prove decisive. SGA masters the matchups, Holmgren stretches Banchero and Wagner off the floor, and Jalen Williams’ late-game poise is enough to wrest MVP honors. Let the dynasty chatter begin. BAG

Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2 Cleveland Cavaliers. Shai wins finals MVP again, but Donovan Mitchell shows grit and grace in defeat. The dynasty talk starts in earnest, and the team’s young roster talks a good game about staying together. But egos and market forces set off the beginnings of a talent and brain drain, making it that much harder for the team to remain on its winning roll going forward. AL

Houston Rockets 4-2 New York Knicks. Coach Mike Brown will maximize the Knicks’ offensive capabilities and lead the franchise to its first trip to the NBA finals in 26 years. The Rockets will present one of the tallest starting line-ups in NBA history, posing a matchup nightmare with Amen Thompson (6ft 7in) at point guard. Durant’s scoring ability and the Rockets depth will be too much for the scrappy Knicks to overcome. Once the final buzzer sounds, the Larry O’Brien championship trophy will return to Houston for the first time since the 1994-95 season. AS