Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Pakistan faces domestic challenges even as it ascends on the global stage, a devastating earthquake rocks Afghanistan, and U.S. President Donald Trump accuses Pakistan of testing nuclear weapons.

Sign up to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Wednesday.

Sign up to receive South Asia Brief in your inbox every Wednesday.

Sign Up

By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time.

Enter your email

Sign Up
Loading…

The View From Islamabad

Pakistan’s geopolitical achievements have captured attention in the last few months, from its unexpected reset with the United States to its deepening ties with Gulf states—including a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia. Perhaps most importantly for Pakistan, it has newfound swagger after holding its own against India during a brief military conflict in May.

But in recent days, some observers have issued a warning: Pakistan may be flying high on the global stage, but this can’t distract from major challenges at home. I have spent the last few days in Islamabad, where conversations with a range of Pakistani interlocutors have brought these issues into sharp relief.

To be sure, Pakistan’s triumphalism is palpable in discussions about foreign affairs. Signs around the capital advertise a weeklong celebration of the country’s friendship with Turkey—another fast-growing partnership, in addition to Paksitan’s friendly relations with China, Iran, and Russia.

But when the topic turns to internal security, the mood changes. Pakistan is struggling to manage an alarming surge in terrorist attacks: There have been 4,373 so far this year, according to government data released this week. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which operates from bases in Afghanistan, is responsible for many of them.

Pakistani officials have held a few rounds of internationally mediated talks with Afghanistan’s Taliban regime in recent weeks—the next round takes place in Turkey on Thursday—but there is rampant pessimism that the Taliban will curb the TTP, a close ally.

Pakistan could face a stark choice: to carry out further military strikes against TTP targets in Afghanistan and risk retaliatory attacks or to hold back and risk continued assaults against Pakistani security forces. Last month, Pakistani strikes led to in the deadliest violence between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

Meanwhile, for all the triumphant talk about countering Indian strikes and downing Indian jets in May, many Pakistanis worry about the possibility of India resuming the conflict, especially with Pakistan distracted by terrorism and border tensions. In recent days, both countries carried out live-fire exercises that coincided with announcements of airspace restrictions, sparking fresh concerns.

Concerns also abound about Pakistan’s economy. Macroeconomic stabilization, from lower inflation to a steadier currency, has largely been fueled by infusions of external financing—particularly International Monetary Fund support. But problems, such as debt, that hamper long-term growth remain entrenched and structural reforms elusive.

Many people in the country also worry about the potential impacts for Pakistan’s democracy of a proposed constitutional amendment that critics fear could curb judicial independence and clip the wings of provincial governments.

There is a strong possibility that Pakistan’s geopolitical moment in the sun will end. If stability returns to the Middle East, Islamabad’s perceived utility there could diminish. U.S. President Donald Trump could grow impatient with the challenges to capitalizing on commercial opportunities in Pakistan.

There is historical precedent here: The Cold War and the immediate post-9/11 era imbued Pakistan with geopolitical significance, but it was ultimately limited. If circumstances become less advantageous for Pakistan, the government might struggle to distract global attention from the country’s internal problems.

There is also something to be said about future priorities. My visit has featured conversations on how Pakistan can use its agency to push for engagement with its neighbors aside from India to focus on shared long-term interests and concerns from promoting connectivity and digitization to fighting pandemics and climate change.

One can speak of the highs and lows of the present, but for a country such as Pakistan, with so many future challenges and such a youth bulge, it always pays to play the long game.

What We’re Following

Another earthquake in Afghanistan. A 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit northern Afghanistan on Monday, killing at least 27 people and injuring nearly 1,000. The epicenter was near the city of Mazar-e-Sharif, where the revered Blue Mosque—thought to be the burial site of Ali, the son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad—suffered significant damage.

Many Afghan provinces lost power because electricity lines from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were damaged. The disaster comes on the heels of a catastrophic earthquake centered on the eastern province of Kunar in August, which killed at least 2,200 people. Afghanistan suffered a series of earthquakes in 2022 and 2023 that killed thousands of people.

These seismic events have come as Afghanistan faces major aid shortages. That said, U.N. rescue teams were on the ground immediately this week, and India quickly announced that it would send earthquake assistance.

Trump says Pakistan is testing nukes. In a 60 Minutes interview that aired on Sunday, Trump said Pakistan—along with China, North Korea, and Russia—was conducting nuclear weapons tests. Trump had previously suggested that Washington would resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Beijing and Moscow.

There is little reason to believe Trump’s claim about Pakistan, which officially became a nuclear state in 1998 and has long declared a moratorium on nuclear tests. (Islamabad is not a signatory of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.) Pakistan did not immediately issue a denial, but on Monday, an unnamed Pakistani official told CBS News that Pakistan would “not be the first” to resume nuclear weapons testing.

Trump’s comment likely provoked some concern in Pakistan’s power corridors. It also offered a reminder about the U.S. president’s unpredictability and by extension the uncertainty about the future of Islamabad and Washington’s bilateral partnership.

India’s Bihar prepares for key poll. Officials in the Indian state of Bihar are making final preparations for a high-stakes election. Voting will happen in two phases: the first on Thursday and the second on Nov. 11. Recent polls show the incumbent governing coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with a small lead.

Bihar, India’s third-most populous state, is a key electoral prize, and the vote comes soon before a series of other state elections. The BJP is thus bringing out its top guns to campaign. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, one of the party’s most influential leaders, appeared at a series of rallies across Bihar in recent days. Modi himself has participated in a few campaign events.

FP’s Most Read This Week

Under the Radar

Zohran Mamdani, a Uganda-born Indian American politician, won the New York City mayoral election on Tuesday. The city’s Indian American community is estimated to number about 250,000; Mamdani has been a lightning rod among the Indian diaspora across the United States.

Some Indian American groups have lambasted the mayor-elect for his harsh criticism of Modi, whom he has called a “war criminal,” referring to accusations that Modi condoned 2002 violence against Muslims in the state of Gujarat, of which he was chief minister at the time.

But Mamdani has generated much more positive sentiment from others, who praise him for his Muslim faith and his embrace of his Indian roots in his campaign, among other things. In his victory speech, the mayor-elect quoted Indian independence hero and first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.

Indian Americans’ differing views of Mamdani reflect the complexities of the diaspora in the United States, which now exceeds 5 million. There is a general perception that many Indian Americans support the Democratic Party and, to a lesser extent, Modi. But the diaspora is made up of multiple generations with a wide variety of voting patterns and political perspectives.