The latest IMF world economic outlook released on Wednesday does not mention “Trump” once in its 166 pages, but he is all over the report as his economic policies continue to make life difficult for everyone. But while the IMF reports Trump’s impact on the global economy is yet to be fully realised, Australian holidaymakers have already made their judgment and are deserting the US in droves.
The IMF always likes to be polite. It titled the October 2025 world economic outlook “Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim” rather than as I would have: “Trump remains dim, so who the hell knows what will happen.”
Perhaps the worst aspect of Trump is how his actions, whether political, economic or social are regarded with initial concern, but then many in the media, and even our government, desperately try to suggest nothing has changed.
But things are not normal. Whether it be calling for the jailing of the Chicago mayor and Illinois governor or boasting of extrajudicial killings, or suggesting to US generals that they should use US cities “as training grounds for our military”, things in the US are very far from normal.
You would think our government, which is now spending billions on Aukus, might reflect that the US is quickly being run by an increasingly authoritarian regime and ponder this disconnect from normality. But no.
The IMF notes that the world economy is not immune to this disconnect.
The initial Trump tariffs announcements in April caused great consternation across the global economy and share markets. And yet largely the impact has been muted. Investors mostly have carried on, ignoring that while the tariffs may not be what Trump initially announced, they remain massively higher than they have been for decades:
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In April the IMF estimated that the US economy would grow just 1.8%; now it has revised that up to 2.0%. Similarly in April the IMF thought Australia would be hurt in the crossfire between the US and China and downgraded its estimate for Australia’s economic growth to 1.6%. Now it has been revised up to 1.8%:
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But we are not back to normal, and no one should think we are. The IMF notes that while trade uncertainty is less than it was in April, compared to any other time, chaos reigns.
Yes, US trade policy is about half as uncertain as it was in April, but remains roughly 3,860% more uncertain than it was a year ago:
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The main reason neither the US nor global economy have nose-dived due to the Trump administration’s policies is that he telegraphed them so obviously that everyone brought forward orders to get them in place before the tariffs came into effect. The IMF notes that “this gave a temporary boost to global activity in early 2025”.
Some investors and our government may be treating the Trump situation as “normal” but it is clear Australians themselves have not been fooled.
This week, the overseas arrivals and departures figures for August showed we are back travelling overseas in record numbers, while the figure for tourists coming to Australia continues to slowly recover from Covid:
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While you may have been observing your friends’ Instagram posts from their holidays in the northern hemisphere, chances are a lot fewer are from the US than once was the case:
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Generally, Australians’ travelling habits since the pandemic have moved away from the US. In the past year, 28% fewer travelled to the US than we did in the year before the pandemic. The only other places with a bigger drop are Russia, Israel and New Caledonia – three countries currently involved in war or civil unrest.
The latest figures however also show the huge Trump effect. Ten per cent fewer Australians travelled to the US in August this year than they did last year. That was the only drop among our 10 most common travel destinations.
And it was not just a one-month abnormality. Travel to the US during June, July and August was also down 3% compared to last year:
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The Trump effect is real.
It is not just Australians who have discarded the US. Last year Tourism Economics forecast that international arrivals to the US would rise 9% in 2025; now it forecasts an 8.2% fall.
Across the global economy uncertainly abounds, and the IMF suggests things remain “in flux”.
But people around the world, including Australians, have no such confusion. They are certain Trump has made the US less attractive, and unlike investors and a government continuing to hold tight to Aukus, they are not regarding his authoritarian rhetoric and policies as normal.
Greg Jericho is a Guardian columnist and policy director at the Centre for Future Work
