Amid the chill in India-Bangladesh ties, there have been subtle signs of warming up of relations in recent weeks, leaving the Sheikh Hasina episode behind. The ice was first broken by the visit of Bangladesh’s National Security Adviser (NSA) to Delhi. Now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message for an ailing Khaleda Zia, Hasina’s rival, has signalled India’s endeavour to restore the status quo in bilateral ties.
On the other side of the border, Dhaka has also tempered down its harsh rhetoric against India. Last week, Bangladeshi foreign affairs adviser Mohammad Touhid Hossain underscored that Dhaka’s relations with Delhi would not be held back by a couple of unresolved issues, including the matter involving Hasina.
“Our interests will remain, and our efforts to secure them will continue… But I don’t think everything else will be stuck because of this,” Hossain said, according to a report in Dhaka Tribune.
PM MODI’S POST FOR KHALEDA ZIA
India is well aware that the Hasina factor will remain an irritant in bilateral ties unless the extradition issue is sorted. The former Prime Minister, who maintained warm ties with India, was recently sentenced to death for crimes against humanity during the unrest last year, which left over 500 dead. Now, with elections looming in Bangladesh and her party banned, PM Modi’s message for Zia has ignited diplomatic chatter.
In a post in both English and Bengali, PM Modi expressed concern about the deteriorating health of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chief and offered “all possible support” for her recovery. The BNP, whose ties with India have been rocky, was quick to acknowledge PM Modi’s “goodwill gesture”.
The two leaders had met way back in 2015 when PM Modi visited Bangladesh. Zia was then the opposition leader.
Last week, Zia, who returned to Bangladesh from London earlier this year, was hospitalised after being diagnosed with infections in her heart and lungs. Her condition deteriorated sharply on Sunday. On Monday, a five-member team of Chinese doctors arrived in Dhaka to monitor her health.
WHY KHALEDA ZIA’S BNP MATTERS TO INDIA
For over five decades, India put all its eggs in the Hasina-led Awami League’s basket. It failed to nurture an alternative. Thus, with the ouster of Hasina, India found itself without an ally in Bangladesh as interim chief Muhammad Yunus gave space to radical Islamist groups in the political space. Pakistan and China, too, cashed in.
Against this backdrop, India’s feelers to the BNP, which is now the largest mainstream political party, assume importance. According to a recent opinion poll, Zia’s party is widely seen as the frontrunner to win the maximum seats in the elections, which are scheduled for February 2026. BNP’s erstwhile ally, Jamaat-e-Islami, is close behind – a concern for India.
The Jamaat, which was banned by Hasina over terror activities, has gnawed its way back into politics under Yunus. In fact, several analysts have implied that Jamaat support played a key role in Yunus becoming the interim chief. Moreover, the Jamaat-e-Islami’s pro-Pakistan stand is well known – the outfit firmly stood behind Islamabad during the 1971 war.
The surprising victory of the Jamaat’s student wing in the union polls of Dhaka University, Bangladesh’s most famous public university, in September has shown that the outfit cannot be taken lightly in the polls.
Congress MP Shashi Tharoor flagged the warning signs. “It is a worrying portent of things to come… How will this play out in the February 2026 general elections? Will New Delhi be dealing with a Jamaat majority next door?” he tweeted.
In such a scenario, for India, the BNP’s role has become pivotal in a post-Sheikh Hasina Bangladesh. For India, dealing with a Jamaat government will be fraught with risks, especially with Pakistani leaders and its notorious spy agency, ISI, already paying visits to Dhaka.
Thus, increasing engagement with the BNP, at a time when the poll scales are tipped in its favour, works to India’s advantage. Moreover, the BNP’s decision to contest the polls alone and not alongside the Jamaat, as it had done in the past, also bodes well for Delhi. Zia’s critical condition is also likely to earn the BNP a lot of sympathy.
BNP leaders feel the time is ripe for Zia’s eldest son, Tarique Rahman, who has directed operations remotely from London since 2008, to return and galvanise the party cadre ahead of the polls. However, Rahman, in a Facebook post, indicated that his return was “not entirely” in his hands, fueling speculation about possible political or legal hurdles.
Bangladesh Nationalist Party chairperson and former prime minister Khaleda Zia with PM Modi
BANGLADESH NSA, AJIT DOVAL MEET
The 2026 elections will go a long way in determining Bangladesh’s immediate political direction following months of chaos, violence, arson, and targeting of minorities. India knows that very well and, despite provocative remarks from Bangladeshi officials, has exercised strategic patience, while continuing bilateral mechanisms.
That both countries were willing to engage despite the Hasina factor was evident when Bangladesh’s top security official, Khalilur Rahman, visited India just a day after the verdict against the Awami League chief. Rahman, who was to attend a regional security forum, arrived in India a day early and met his counterparty, Ajit Doval.
Both sides, however, have remained tight-lipped on what transpired in the meeting. The Bangladeshi NSA also extended an invitation to Doval to visit Dhaka.
Rahman was only the second high-level official of the Yunus government to travel to Delhi since Hasina’s ouster in August 2024.
Bangladesh’s decision to carry on with the NSA-level meeting despite domestic pressure to cancel Rahman’s visit has shown that its strained ties with India appear to be inching back towards stability as Delhi tries to reposition itself in the post-Hasina landscape.
– Ends
Published By:
Abhishek De
Published On:
Dec 2, 2025
